WESTMINSTER NEEDS SCOTLAND TO SURVIVE
From Dave Martin,
The maths of the situation provide a pretty conclusive picture of why Westminster are bending over backwards ( and lying ) to make sure we will be “better Together”.
In reality Westminster could not fund its corrupt ways without the massive… injection of revenue from our economy. Independence will not only be a game changer for Scotland, but will force the UK government to properly get its act together.
Yes we are all going to go through a challenging time for a few years, but I just cant see the downside. Win WIn!
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about scotland’s income and wealth.
according to HMRC figures, ( which still, it is worth noting, under-estimate the amount of revenue raised in scotland due to a system of attribution of revenue by where it LEAVES the ‘united kingdom, resulting in a noticeable proportion of scotland’s economic activity being attributed to england.. )
in the tax year 2011-2012 :
revenue raised in scotland was £…45,056,000,000 ( 45bn )
scotland’s block grant funding was 26,984,660,000 ( a smidge under 27bn )
so last year, we contributed 18bn and change, to the union, which we didn’t get back in block grant.
benefits spending in scotland was 17.2bn. ( this includes the various tax credits, and pensions, as well as JSA and ESA and PIP and DLA and carer’s allowance, and so on. )
so, from figures westminster is willing to admit to ( ie : not accounting for misattribution of economic revenue raising activity ), we’re still in surplus by almost a billion.
now, if we were to factor in the misattributed economic activity, estimates are that we’d be looking at around another 2-4bn, possibly more.
so we’re anywhere between 3-5bn ( or more ) in budget surplus. this is despite portions of our budget being used to ameliorate the harm caused by westminster policies.
our block grant figures INCLUDE our share of uk debt repayments… 4.5bn. a year, and rising.
so we’re actually anywhere between 7.5 and 9.5 bn in surplus.
BUT WAIT AGAIN.
our block grant figures still include our share of the defence budget… our share, 1.9bn of which IS NOT SPENT IN SCOTLAND, OR EVEN ON SCOTLAND.
so now it’s 9.4 to11.4 bn in surplus.
and then we have our share of ‘uk’ responsibility projects.. like hs2, and the westminster sewer upgrades, westminster refurbishments, london subway upgrades, etc etc. 0.6bn to 1.3bn a year.
let’s take the lower end of the 0.6bn.
now it’s 10 to 12 bn a year in surplus. that’s almost half our block grant allocation.
there are other areas of spending we could quibble about that would show an even higher degree of surplus for scotland.
but, let’s move on to the oil, we haven’t even touched on that yet.
in the tax year 2011-12, north sea oil/gas REVENUE ( tax money raised from oil/gas. ) was :
that’s four hundred and sixty nine BILLION, seven hundred and seventy seven MILLION pounds.
it’s estimated that 80-90% of uk oil is within what would, under international maritime law, be scottish territory/territorial waters.
let’s take the lower estimate of 80%, shall we?
three hundred and seventy five BILLION, eight hundred and twenty one MILLION, six HUNDRED THOUSAND, pounds.
bear in mind that scotland operates on less than 45 billion pounds a year.
oil revenue for scotland, is over 8.3 times our national operating budget on a yearly basis.
no kidding here.
the oil is worth just over eight times in tax revenue, what it costs to run scotland for a year… every year.
and the oil revenue has NOT, as better together like to claim, been going down.
HMRC’s own figures show, almost EVERY year since the 1999-2000 tax year, oil revenues have risen. sole exceptions were tax years 2008-2009, and 2009-2010 ).
we are NOT dependent on oil.
we’re in budget surplus without out even looking at it, by a very noticeable proportion of the country’s budget.
but even if we started spending ALL the budget surplus on improving scotland, and the lives of the people who live here… ( and think what a difference THAT would make. )
that oil revenue.
even if we took on a population-prop ortionate share of westminster’s debt, in order to secure a currency union, yeah?
the current expectation is that by tax year 2016-2017, our population share of the uk’s debt, would be… 126bn.
oil revenue is 375bn and change.
we could, in YEAR ONE, of independent scotland, take our share of the uk’s debt in order to get a currency union, PAY IT OFF within that year, WITHOUT affecting our budget, even whilst INCREASING our budget by getting access to the surplus currently hijacked by westminster… and have 250 bn straight off, in a sovereign wealth fund.
TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY BILLION POUNDS, IN CREDIT. NOT IN DEBT, BUT IN CREDIT.
that is QUARTER OF A TRILLION.
year two of independent scotland, assuming we again, bank all the oil revenue, that could be 675 bn.
year three of independent scotland, that could be 1050 bn. ( 1.05 TRILLION. )
year four of independent scotland, that could be 1.425 trillion.
year five of independent scotland, that could be 1.8 trillion.
within five year of independence, our sovereign wealth fund, could be LARGER than that of norway.
this is not a joke.
this is not an exaggeration.
this is taken straight from westminster’s own figures.
and consider this.
norway discovered oil just after it was discovered here. they’ve spent 30 some years building up their oil fund.
we can BETTER it, within five years of becoming independent.
THAT, is how rich we are.
pay for the NHS at current levels?
POCKET CHANGE, to independent scotland.
free university tuition?
POCKET CHANGE, to independent scotland.
the ambitions of the common weal project… they’re just the START of what we’d be capable of. the merest beginning.
in the face of this, NOT ONE SINGLE MONETARY THREAT OR SCARE of the ‘better together’ campaign, holds the slightest semblance of a shred of credibility. none of them.
there is NO source of investment, research funding, arts grants, whatever, that we cannot replace, even were people foolish enough to abandon investing in some of the best scientists, artists, musicians, etc, that the world has to offer.
and now, the supporting evidence.
this is the HMRC’s breakdown of revenue and where it deems it to have been raised.
ALL figures are contained in here.
the oil figures (screenshotted from within the above pdf ) :http://i.imgur.com/e3DJHV0.jpg
table comparison of revenue raised vs block grant allocation :http://i.imgur.com/lwVGUSX.jpg See More